Weight Loss Drugs Boost Apparel Sales; Semaglutide's Role in Alcohol Use Disorder

GLP Digest: A weekly roundup of the most important news & research related to GLP-1 drugs. We read through hundreds of articles, reports and journals so you can remain up-to-date.

In today’s digest:

1. Weight Loss Drugs Expected to Boost Apparel Sales (Read)

2. EMA Scrutinizes GLP-1 Drugs for Link to Suicidal Thoughts (Read)

3. Pfizer Halts Development of Danuglipron Amid High Side Effect Rates (Read)

4. Amgen and Viking Therapeutics Set to Join the Obesity Drug Arena (Read)

5. [Premium] Semaglutide's Promising Role in Alcohol Use Disorder: Research paper in The Journal of Clinical Psychiatry (Read)

1. Slimming Down, Dressing Up: Weight Loss Drugs Expected to Boost Apparel Sales

Stifel's Jim Duffy highlighted potential beneficiaries in the retail sector, including Lululemon, Levi's, Kontoor Brands, and Dick's Sporting Goods. According to Duffy, individuals on these medications will purchase double the amount of apparel annually, potentially leading to a low- to mid-single digit increase in apparel spending. Beyond apparel, sectors like energy drinks and convenient nutrition are also poised to benefit.

A recent survey by Stifel has revealed a potential surge in apparel spending linked to the increasing use of GLP-1 weight loss medications. Around 15% of survey respondents are currently on these drugs, such as Eli Lilly's Mounjaro (tirzepatide) and Novo Nordisk's Wegovy (semaglutide), with an additional 21% expressing interest in using them if more drugs receive FDA approval and prove effective.

Our Take:

Over the next 12 months, the apparel industry may witness a noticeable uptick in sales, especially among brands favored by health-conscious consumers. This trend could extend to related sectors like energy drinks and nutritional snacks. The anticipated FDA approval of more GLP-1 drugs could further amplify this effect, making it a significant factor in retail and consumer goods market dynamics.

Read the full story here.

2. EMA Scrutinizes Popular Diabetes and Weight-Loss Drugs for Link to Suicidal Thoughts

The European Medicines Agency (EMA) is intensifying its scrutiny of a class of diabetes and weight-loss drugs, including Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy, for possible links to suicidal thoughts in patients. This action follows a review initiated in July, encompassing drugs like Eli Lilly's Trulicity, Sanofi's Suliqua, AstraZeneca's Bydureon, and Novo's Rybelsus and Saxenda, all classified as GLP-1 receptor agonists. The EMA's Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC) plans to revisit this topic in April 2024.

The investigation was spurred by reports from the Icelandic Medicines Agency and additional cases registered in EudraVigilance, a European system for monitoring suspected drug side effects. Although the EMA has not concluded a direct causal relationship, the need for further data and clarification remains. Notably, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro (Zepbound) is not included in this review due to its distinct molecular classification.

Our Take: The EMA's ongoing investigation into GLP-1 receptor agonists could have significant repercussions for the pharmaceutical and biotech industries, particularly for companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. In the next 12 months, this scrutiny may lead to heightened regulatory oversight, potential labeling changes, and an impact on prescribing practices. For investors, it's crucial to monitor developments closely, as any significant regulatory changes could affect market confidence and investment strategies in the sector, especially in companies heavily invested in this drug class.

Read the full story here.

3. Pfizer Halts Development of Obesity Drug Danuglipron Amid High Side Effect Rates

Pfizer has discontinued the development of its twice-daily obesity treatment, danuglipron, due to high rates of adverse side effects observed in a midstage clinical trial. This decision follows the earlier discontinuation of another obesity drug candidate by Pfizer in June, which was also halted because of safety concerns, specifically elevated liver enzymes.

Despite the recent success of obesity drugs like Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro, and Ozempic, which have gained popularity for their efficacy and safety, Pfizer’s challenges underscore the historical difficulty in creating effective and safe weight loss treatments. The pharmaceutical industry has long struggled with obesity drugs, often discontinuing them due to serious side effects such as increased cancer and cardiovascular risks, and psychiatric issues.

Our Take: Pfizer's recent setbacks in obesity drug development reflect the complex challenges facing the pharma industry in balancing efficacy and safety. In the next 12 months, the focus for biotech and pharma companies may shift towards enhancing safety profiles and minimizing side effects, especially given the high market demand for effective obesity treatments.

Read the full story here.

4. Amgen and Viking Therapeutics Set to Join the Obesity Drug Arena

Oppenheimer analyst Jay Olson suggests alternative investment strategies in the obesity drug market, focusing on companies like Amgen and Viking Therapeutics, which have potential in treating obesity-related comorbidities. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, initially targeting diabetes, have pivoted towards obesity drugs, underscoring the close relationship between obesity and various other health issues like heart disease, sleep apnea, and NASH (non-alcoholic steatohepatitis).

Amgen and Viking are developing obesity medications that show promise in early trials, with Amgen’s drug demonstrating a 14.5% weight loss over 12 weeks and Viking’s achieving an 8% reduction over 28 days. Amgen, known for its cholesterol drug Repatha, might combine it with its obesity treatment for enhanced cardiovascular risk reduction. Viking’s NASH drug, showing significant liver fat reduction in trials, could potentially be combined with its obesity treatment. While these developments are speculative, Amgen's established financial position and Viking's rapid stock value growth indicate a dynamic market. Olson anticipates a drop in obesity medication prices with increased competition, especially with Amgen's entry, known for reducing its drug prices for market penetration.

Our Take: The obesity drug market is poised for rapid growth and diversification, with significant implications for the biotech, pharma, and investment sectors. In the next 12 months, we expect a heightened focus on companies like Amgen and Viking, which offer innovative approaches to obesity treatment by targeting associated comorbidities. This strategy not only diversifies the market but also promises comprehensive healthcare solutions, increasing the appeal to investors. Moreover, the potential for price reductions in obesity medications due to competitive pressures could lead to more accessible treatments and a broader market reach, presenting lucrative investment opportunities with a focus on long-term, sustainable growth.

Read the full story here.

5. Semaglutide's Promising Role in Alcohol Use Disorder: Research Study

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